Los Trancos Woods, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

159
FXUS66 KMTR 080534
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1034 PM PDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Cooler temperatures today will give way to a resumed warming trend
for the rest of the work week. Slight cooling and gustier winds are
expected this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM PDT Mon Apr 7 2025

A mix of coastal stratus, mid, and high clouds are contributing to
a complex sky this evening. We received a few reports of thick
marine layer mist and even some drizzle during this shift. This
suggests a shallow marine layer was able to develop today. The
impacts were limited strictly to the coast. For example at 2 PM,
Dillon Beach was 51 degrees with 97% humidity, while Petaluma (15
miles away) was 67 degrees with 39% humidity. High pressure will
begin to build Tuesday afternoon, although with onshore winds and
an organizing marine layer, it will feel pretty similar to today
along the coast. Meanwhile, inland areas will enjoy more sunshine
and slightly warmer temperatures Tuesday before a more
substantial warm-up on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Apr 7 2025

The weak cold front which brought generally light rain across the
region last night into this morning is moving off to the south, with
a second weak front coming into the North Coast helping to reinforce
the cloudier and slightly cooler conditions for the rest of the day.
Light drizzle is possible for the rest of the day, especially in the
higher elevations, but no additional accumulation is expected. High
temperatures across the Bay Area reach the middle 60s to near 70
inland, the lower to middle 60s on the Bayshore, and the middle to
upper 50s along the Pacific coast. Temperatures are somewhat warmer
in the Central Coast, where the cold frontal influence was not as
strong, where temperatures range from the middle to upper 60s in the
Monterey Bay region and Big Sur, to the middle and upper 70s in the
valleys of southern Monterey County, where you`d be forgiven for
asking, "what cold front?". Low temperatures will fall into the
middle 40s to lower 50s for most of the region, with upper 30s to
lower 40s expected in the higher elevations.

The warming trend that characterized the end of last week will
resume tomorrow, as the upper level ridge rebuilds over the western
United States. Temperatures in the Central Coast and the coastal Bay
Area won`t warm that much, at most a couple of degrees in Santa Cruz
County, but the inland valleys of the Bay Area will warm into the
upper 60s and the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Apr 7 2025

The peak of the warming trend is expected on Wednesday and Thursday
with a pronounced ridge over the western United States. Highs in the
inland valleys will rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s, or around
5 to 10 degrees above the seasonal average, while the southern
Salinas Valley will see highs in the middle to upper 80s. Along the
coast, there is some uncertainty regarding the high temperature
forecast, with the reasonable range of highs in downtown San
Francisco ranging from the upper 60s to the middle 70s. A lot of the
coastal temperature forecast rides on four words: marine layer sea
breeze. The marine layer tends to act as a moderating influence on
coastal temperatures, both in terms of bringing in cooler air from
the Pacific Ocean and also enabling the sea breeze which will
enhance the cooling effect on the human body. Forecasting the extent
of the marine layer influence is difficult beyond the next couple of
days, but some of the first high-resolution model data that has come
in suggests that the marine layer will be pretty shallow, up to
around 500 feet at most, which would limit the influence to pretty
much the immediate Pacific coast. For now, we`ve bumped coastal high
temperatures up a few degrees due to the uncertainty surrounding the
marine layer resulting in high temperatures in the 60s and lower
70s, but don`t be surprised if temperatures rise a few degrees above
the current forecast if the marine layer doesn`t develop as
expected, or fall a few degrees short if it overproduces.

A slight cooling begins on Friday into the weekend as a positively
tilted upper level trough approaches the West Coast. Most of the
moisture from the trough will be expended over the Pacific Northwest
and far northern California, leaving the Bay Area and Central Coast
dry. The main sensible weather impacts will be somewhat cooler
highs, with temperatures dropping to the lower 70s in the inland
valleys, the middle to upper 60s near the Bays, and the upper 50s
along the Pacific coast, as well as some gusty winds across the
region. The current forecast does not call for gusts to reach Wind
Advisory criteria, with the strongest gusts around 30 miles per hour
along the ridgelines, at the coast, and through gaps and passes.

Longer term CPC outlooks suggest that temperatures lean above
seasonal averages and precipitation totals lean below seasonal
averages into the third week of April.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 PM PDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Coastal IFR ceilings will likely increase in coverage overnight
through Tuesday morning. Skies mostly clearing Tuesday from mid-
morning onward with some lingering high clouds.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR then MVFR ceiling 09z-16z. Clearing 16z
Tuesday with VFR for the rest of the day. Breezy onshore wind to
17 to 24 knots in the afternoon to mid evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR then MVFR ceilings 09z-16z. Clearing
16z Tuesday with VFR for the rest of the morning and afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 842 PM PDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Moderate WNW swell will subside through the night as high pressure
builds across the Eastern Pacific. A gentle to moderate NW breeze
will prevail through the majority of the week, increasing to a
strong N breeze this weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Flynn

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